The Braeburn Group AAPL 12-Month Price Target Index
Members of the Braeburn Group of independent Apple analysts were polled for 12-month price targets for the period ending November 3, 2014. The consensus price target is $690 per share. At time of publication, the $690 Braeburn Group 12-month price target is above the consensus Wall Street price target of $579 and well above the closing price of $524.99 on November 15, 2013.
The November price target index update reflects cautious optimism among members participating in index. This optimism is highlighted in comments submitted by members:
* Market sentiment about Apple has become more positive over the past few months but the euphoria that was present in the fall of 2012 has all but disappeared. This provides a strong foundation for share price advances over the next 12 months.
* The pending China Mobile agreement will boost unit sales and favorably impact the share price as iPhone sales through the world’s largest carrier commence later this fiscal year.
* Rising earnings per share from organic net income growth and fewer shares outstanding will provide support for the share price.
*New product categories expected in 2014 will broaden the company’s revenue base and create new sources for revenue and earnings growth.
* In FY 2014 Apple’s gross margin will stabilize and slow but steady revenue growth will move the share price higher.
There are stated concerns among index participants about the performance of the company’s Macintosh line as global PC sales continue to decline. For the first time in ten years, Apple’s fast-fading iPod line of digital music players is viewed as essentially immaterial to the company’s results.
Participants expect an expansion of Apple’s current earnings multiple as net income growth returns this fiscal year and as Apple increases the deferred revenue on each iOS device and Macintosh computer sold. On average, participants expect AAPL’s earnings multiple to expand from 13.21 times trailing 12-month earnings at time of publication to between 14 and 15 times trailing 12-month earnings.
The November price target index update is not a gauge of member sentiment about Apple’s long-term growth prospects but a measure of expectations for the share price over the next twelve months. The Braeburn Group 12-Month AAPL Price Target Index is updated periodically throughout the year. The next update is scheduled for February 2014.
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